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Weekly Stock and Crypto Analysis for the Week of August 9, 2021

on 8/7/21 by Miguel A. Suro
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Note: all charts are from ThinkorSwim.

Stocks

MES

I am cautiously optimistic that the SPY is breaking out of its consolidation range. On Friday, it did technically break out by going past ~4420, but on somewhat low volume and on a small candle. It’s too early to tell whether this is a real breakout, so I think further observation and caution is in order. 

Heikin Ashi candles also point to a breakout:

Still, I am not comfortable calling it a true breakout yet. Let’s wait and see what happens next.

MNQ

The NASDAQ failed to break out, and failed on somewhat elevated volume. Right now, I can only foresee chop ahead, at least until we get a real breakout supported by volume.

M2K

The Russell 2000 is consolidating, and has been so since February. There is no appreciable trend. The last few days have put up a lot of upside wicks, showing that the bulls simply cannot break through even a middle level within the consolidation.

Overall Stock Market

Overall, the stock market shows very mild strength, especially in the SPY. I am not very optimistic about big moves until we get some sort of significant breakout or catalyst. Right now, I have to expect further chop until the picture changes.

Crypto

MBT

Bitcoin is trending up with moderate strength. It put up a bullish hammer candle and then a small-ish, hammer-ish bull candle on elevated volume in the past two days. I am optimistic for further price discovery to the upside, though we have to see if the trend continues and strengthens.

ETH

Ethereum seems to be in a fairly strong uptrend with the successful implementation of EIP 1559 this week with the London hard fork. The last 3 days have seen a big bull candle and two hammers on fairly elevated volume. So far, I’d say it’s in a moderately strong uptrend.

Heikin Ashi candles show this even more clearly:

You can also observe a double bottom reversal pattern, so I am pretty confident that ETH is in an uptrend, though I am somewhat concerned about the low volume on 8/4 and 8/6. I would be more confident if we saw a low-volume consolidation and then a high-volume breakout to make a nice ABCD pattern.

Indeed, looking at the ETH chart on Sunday, I think it seems reasonable to expect a possible consolidation at this time. Here’s the Tradingview chart:

Overall

Very mildly bullish on stocks, more bullish on crypto.

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About Miguel A. Suro

I'm Miguel A. Suro, a Miami dad, attorney, journalist, and entrepreneur devoted to helping you live well for less. I've been seen on the NY Times, CNBC, NBC News, and more. Get to know us on:

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